Thursday, November 16, 2017

Up-coming: Yemen

Targeting Europe: As the Dream of the Caliphate Dies Europe May Witness Chemical Attacks

Upcoming:

While much is made of Daesh use of Sarin in Syria, Europe may well be in the future cross hairs as Daesh is removed from its stronghold in Iraq. Although in decline, deep radicalization in some sections of Daesh and its European affiliates/operators, may pose some minor risk to civilian security. Recent inquiries, posed to achieve some response are remote at best and ill conceived at worst. Nonetheless, I've tried to respond taking into account that it may be just something to divert one's attention from more realistic issues. In so doing, I believe its wise we focus on the reality of the risk to Europe. Sarin is interesting, but its of limited use by Daesh--regionally limited as their manufacturing is slow and nested in Iraq. Of far more concern is the use of conventional weapons on the streets of London for example--a car used to mow down pedestrians. My concerns are focused on more mundane risks. TATP is a worry and while this could be considered a chemical weapon, its use would be far less exotic than the machinations of some service personnel, who tend toward the more remote far out agents, for unknown motivations-distraction? The real risk from Daesh is the continued use of conventional bombs and cars. Its basic and plane and not as sexy as chemical or its very exotic counterpart biological weapons. Nuclear is interesting and I wouldn't rule it out.

Clearly returning Daesh fighters pose a threat to nearly every country, especially European and Russian populations. It would be wise however, not to run off in fantasy, pose ill thought out queries and alarm the public with such far out ideas. Daesh is a terrorist organization, they've been somewhat effective, but historically, Europe has suffered terrorist attacks and been highly resilient.  My advice to the query I received  recently was simple, develop a nation wide barrier system and a CW detection capability and focus on developing an ARS drug stockpile beyond KI. If Europe is serious about protecting its citizens it must adopt such programs, as early as possible. The threat of Daesh may increase a little or it may not but terrorism will always be problematic and we should develop the resources to protect against real threats not switch gears or try to distract from real issues by coming up with remote far out fantasy threats that will never happen. By lowering the bar and spinning out in space we underestimate the resolve of our enemies and distract from serious issues.
It should be noted that while I've ventured a best guess on Daesh, I claim no expertise in Daesh, Islamic terrorism or chemical weapons. I remain interested only in bio and nuclear and realistic scenarios.

Dutch Technology may be Used in Weapons of Mass Destruction: A list of a scandal hit state

Very concerning report and coming on the heels of the resignation of their Minister of Defence over the apparently preventable death of two Dutch soldiers.  For nearly five years its been one scandal after another to rock their MoD and government. While my personal dealings with the Dutch military police (Marechausee) have shown their MP's to be incredibly professional, I hold them in the highest regard, sadly their top MoD leadership appears to be in somewhat of a shambles. With a scandal hit MoD and a very strong Russia on the boarders of NATO territory, it would do well to select a tough male for this position, someone who can really tow the line and get that house in order. Its simply not going to be enough to cuddle up to US and UK IC to siphon off military intel, they will eventually be caught out, if internal policy doesn't change. Its a good thing their military police are so competent as they are the only internal review.

Interesting comments by MIVD on their CW issue, but a more objective and critical view of state acquisition of WMD materials,  specifically on the biological side, actually would indicate the opposite. Advances in the life sciences mediate against state parties needing to shop in Holland for much.  I personally believe other countries are in a much better position to be the 'global shopping mall' for WMD, the Dutch are very low on that list. Thank goodness for Australia Group Export Controls.  

Although the Dutch do have somewhat of a history of providing precursors for chemical weapons to rogue states as does Germany,  I suppose that's still an unsolved issue for them. They are a very minor player. However at the end of the day, this is a military with deep issues and problems which hopefully can be resolved under a new minister of defence. As a very small country the MoD has had a number of high profile scandals and perhaps its time to rethink things. The Netherlands is a very small country with extremely limited resources and it may be best not to participate in high profile international missions, risking their soldier's safety, until their defence budget reflects the NATO standard.  In the Dutch press its been proposed that there is a tendency to deploy troops in an effort to 'look good' on the international stage without much thought to the safety of their troops. Hopefully, the new minister will take this to heart and draw down on these types of paper dragon, showy deployments. Given what happened in Screbrenica, the peacekeeping missions definitely need to be rethought. Its not their forte.  

To put things in perspective, the resignation of the current minister of defence is by far not the most serious of issues to face the Dutch MoD. Although the previous case of the Dutch selling chemical weapons to Iraq was not related in any way to the Dutch MoD, its just one more issue for such a small country, a bit out of proportion. While they seem to struggle with keeping themselves out of fairly major scandals, which have seen their government collapse on occasion, the Netherlands has avoided major terrorist attacks, probably to the credit of  their intelligence services.  The scandals in their MoD don't seem to have an effect on the actual implementation of counter measures to prevent terrorism. In fact the Dutch have some of the toughest laws in Europe on terrorism, second to France. Still for a country of only 17 million people and a very small MoD, they've had a disproportionate number of scandals rock their defence institutions.  In contrast, an even smaller country like Belgium, has not. Its one thing for countries like Russia, China or the United States to have a scandal here and there but for a country so far down on the international military agenda such serious scandals and so many in such a relatively short period point to serious internal issues. Until they resolve some of these issues, they are a liability to countries who might be engaged in joint operations. Let's hope they can stay out of trouble for a while. The resignation of their Minister of Defense could be a good starting point for them. Its never good news to have a NATO MS try to assume a position which doesn't match their capabilities or international status. Attention seeking never pays off. A list of the highlights, drawn purely from open source below. One can only imagine, if this is in the public domain, what's not. A type of timeline. 

 

Dutch Technology may be used in Weapons of Mass Destruction 

HTTPS://NLTIMES.NL/2017/10/26/DUTCH-TECHNOLOGY-MAYBE-USED-WEAPONS-MASS-DESTRUCTION



HTTPS://NLTIMES.NL/2017/09/18/NETHERLANDS-SUPERMARKET-COUNTRIES-BUILDING-WEAPONS-MASS-DESTRUCTION-INTELLIGENCE-SERVICE

Dutch Chief of Defence Resigns 

HTTPS://WWW.GOVERNMENT.NL/LATEST/NEWS/2017/10/03/CHIEF-OF-DEFENCE-RESIGNS

Dutch Minister of Defence Resigns  

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2017/10/03/dutch-defense-minister-military-chief-resign-over-casualties/

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/10/dutch-defence-minister-quits-mali-training-deaths-171004061537599.html


DUTCH SAFETY BOARD REPORT OF DUTCH SOLDIER'S DEATHS


https://nos.nl/artikel/2195152-ovv-defensie-schoot-ernstig-tekort-in-mali.html

Dutch Sergeant Suspected of Joining ISIS Placed on National Terrorist List

HTTPS://NLTIMES.NL/2017/04/03/DUTCH-SERGEANT-SUSPECTED-JOINING-ISIS-PLACED-NATIONAL-TERRORIST-LIST

Dutch Government Falls over Afghanistan Mission 


HTTPS://WWW.RNW.ORG/ARCHIVE/DUTCH-GOVERNMENT-FALLS-OVER-AFGHANISTAN-MISSION


Previous Sale of Chemical Precursors to Iraq

HTTPS://WWW.VOANEWS.COM/A/A-13-2005-03-18-VOA61/294519.HTML


HTTP://THEIRANPROJECT.COM/BLOG/2013/04/25/COURT-ORDERS-DUTCH-MAN-TO-COMPENSATE-IRAN-VICTIMS-OF-IRAQ-GAS-ATTACKS/

Sex Scandal Costs Deputy Defence Minister his Job 
HTTPS://WWW.RNW.ORG/ARCHIVE/SEX-SCANDAL-COSTS-DEPUTY-DEFENCE-MINISTER-HIS-JOB

Dutchbat, Srebrenica

HTTPS://WWW.NYTIMES.COM/2017/06/27/WORLD/EUROPE/SREBRENICA-BOSNIA-DUTCH-NETHERLANDS.HTML


HTTPS://SREBRENICAGENOCIDE.WORDPRESS.COM/2007/11/26/DUTCH-NIOD-REPORT-ON-SREBRENICA/

HTTPS://WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM/WORLD/2017/JUN/28/DUTCH-SOLDIERS-LET-300-MUSLIMS-DIE-IN-BOSNIAN-WAR-COURT-RULES

Thursday, October 26, 2017

Dutch Technology may be Used in Weapons of Mass Destruction: A list of a scandal hit state

Very concerning report and coming on the heels of the resignation of their Minister of Defence over the apparently preventable death of two Dutch soldiers.  For nearly five years its been one scandal after another to rock their MoD and government. While my personal dealings with the Dutch military police (Marechausee) have shown their MP's to be incredibly professional, I hold them in the highest regard, sadly their top MoD leadership appears to be in somewhat of a shambles. With a scandal hit MoD and a very strong Russia on the boarders of NATO territory, it would do well to select a tough male for this position, someone who can really tow the line and get that house in order. Its simply not going to be enough to cuddle up to US and UK IC to siphon off military intel, they will eventually be caught out, if internal policy doesn't change. Its a good thing their military police are so competent as they are the only internal review.

Interesting comments by MIVD on their CW issue, but a more objective and critical view of state acquisition of WMD materials,  specifically on the biological side, actually would indicate the opposite. Advances in the life sciences mediate against state parties needing to shop in Holland for much.  I personally believe other countries are in a much better position to be the 'global shopping mall' for WMD, the Dutch are very low on that list. Thank goodness for Australia Group Export Controls.  

Although the Dutch do have somewhat of a history of providing precursors for chemical weapons to rogue states as does Germany,  I suppose that's still an unsolved issue for them. They are a very minor player. However at the end of the day, this is a military with deep issues and problems which hopefully can be resolved under a new minister of defence. As a very small country the MoD has had a number of high profile scandals and perhaps its time to rethink things. The Netherlands is a very small country with extremely limited resources and it may be best not to participate in high profile international missions, risking their soldier's safety, until their defence budget reflects the NATO standard.  In the Dutch press its been proposed that there is a tendency to deploy troops in an effort to 'look good' on the international stage without much thought to the safety of their troops. Hopefully, the new minister will take this to heart and draw down on these types of paper dragon, showy deployments. Given what happened in Screbrenica, the peacekeeping missions definitely need to be rethought. Its not their forte.  

To put things in perspective, the resignation of the current minister of defence is by far not the most serious of issues to face the Dutch MoD. Although the previous case of the Dutch selling chemical weapons to Iraq was not related in any way to the Dutch MoD, its just one more issue for such a small country, a bit out of proportion. While they seem to struggle with keeping themselves out of fairly major scandals, which have seen their government collapse on occasion, the Netherlands has avoided major terrorist attacks, probably to the credit of  their intelligence services.  The scandals in their MoD don't seem to have an effect on the actual implementation of counter measures to prevent terrorism. In fact the Dutch have some of the toughest laws in Europe on terrorism, second to France. Still for a country of only 17 million people and a very small MoD, they've had a disproportionate number of scandals rock their defence institutions.  In contrast, an even smaller country like Belgium, has not. Its one thing for countries like Russia, China or the United States to have a scandal here and there but for a country so far down on the international military agenda such serious scandals and so many in such a relatively short period point to serious internal issues. Until they resolve some of these issues, they are a liability to countries who might be engaged in joint operations. Let's hope they can stay out of trouble for a while. The resignation of their Minister of Defense could be a good starting point for them. Its never good news to have a NATO MS try to assume a position which doesn't match their capabilities or international status. Attention seeking never pays off. A list of the highlights, drawn purely from open source below. One can only imagine, if this is in the public domain, what's not. A type of timeline. 

 

Dutch Technology may be used in Weapons of Mass Destruction 

https://nltimes.nl/2017/10/26/dutch-technology-maybe-used-weapons-mass-destruction

https://nltimes.nl/2017/09/18/netherlands-supermarket-countries-building-weapons-mass-destruction-intelligence-service

Dutch Chief of Defence Resigns 

https://www.government.nl/latest/news/2017/10/03/chief-of-defence-resigns

Dutch Minister of Defence Resigns  

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2017/10/03/dutch-defense-minister-military-chief-resign-over-casualties/

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/10/dutch-defence-minister-quits-mali-training-deaths-171004061537599.html



Dutch Safety Board Report of Dutch Soldier's Deaths


https://nos.nl/artikel/2195152-ovv-defensie-schoot-ernstig-tekort-in-mali.html

Dutch Sergeant Suspected of Joining ISIS Placed on National Terrorist List

https://nltimes.nl/2017/04/03/dutch-sergeant-suspected-joining-isis-placed-national-terrorist-list


Dutch Government Falls over Afghanistan Mission 


https://www.rnw.org/archive/dutch-government-falls-over-afghanistan-mission


Previous Sale of Chemical Precursors to Iraq

https://www.voanews.com/a/a-13-2005-03-18-voa61/294519.html


http://theiranproject.com/blog/2013/04/25/court-orders-dutch-man-to-compensate-iran-victims-of-iraq-gas-attacks/

Sex Scandal Costs Deputy Defence Minister his Job 
https://www.rnw.org/archive/sex-scandal-costs-deputy-defence-minister-his-job


Dutchbat, Srebrenica

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/27/world/europe/srebrenica-bosnia-dutch-netherlands.html


https://srebrenicagenocide.wordpress.com/2007/11/26/dutch-niod-report-on-srebrenica/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/28/dutch-soldiers-let-300-muslims-die-in-bosnian-war-court-rules